Looking through the noise

As we enter the second half of 2025, investors are confronted by a market narrative that appears increasingly disconnected from the underlying economy and risks. At Peregrine Wealth, our role is to cut through the short-term noise, focusing instead on the structural dynamics that will shape financial outcomes in the months and years ahead.

Trump and the trade tariff shadow

The headlines around tariffs flip-flop so fast that most are now just ignored. President Trump’s language is also extremely ambiguous, and multiple messages can be read from what he says. The overall policy posture from the White House, however, remains firmly protectionist, and uncertainty around United States (US) global trade rules continues to pose a major threat to global economic outcomes. Tariff implementation may be staggered, but the longer-term economic and inflationary effects are likely to be felt in delayed waves – impacting costs, margins, and, ultimately, global growth.

A rally that ignores risk

Since April, global equity markets have staged a robust rally, driven largely by optimism around potential rate cuts, strong corporate earnings in specific sectors, and a resilient consumer financed by fiscal stimulus. However, markets appear increasingly priced for perfection with little regard for the looming risks posed by renewed trade tensions, stubborn inflation, and a fragile geopolitical backdrop. Complacency may be creeping in at precisely the wrong time. As always, overreaction and under-pricing of risk tend to lead to periods of increased volatility.

Seeing clearly, acting wisely

At Peregrine Wealth, we continue to view markets through a long-term lens. Our multi-scenario investment approach is designed not just to participate in rallies, but to remain resilient through periods of market volatility. By acknowledging uncertainty without being paralysed by it, we help our clients remain focused on their long-term goals while sidestepping the emotional traps that noise-driven markets often create.

Remaining grounded in fundamentals

We believe that the months ahead will require heightened selectivity, disciplined diversification, and careful attention to valuation. While markets may be celebrating, the economic and geopolitical crosswinds continue to gather strength just beyond the headlines. We encourage investors to stay invested – but to stay invested wisely.

Enjoy this edition of Peregrination